Market Key Points Global share markets continued to advance in May, supported by resilient earnings, improving confidence in the global growth outlook and renewed enthusiasm for AI-related investment themes. While geopolitical risks and inflation concerns remained in focus, sentiment was helped by easing energy prices and stronger risk appetite across share markets. Bond markets also steadied…
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Market Key Points Global equities rebounded strongly, looking through the geopolitical and oil price pressures. Inflationary pressures continue to cause markets to reassess the monetary policy paths of many central banks. Australian equities lagged global markets, with the Health Care and Consumer Staples sectors the main detractors. Australian equities The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index rose…
Market Key Points Rising geopolitical tensions and the closure of a major shipping lane triggered a massive surge in global energy prices. Persistent inflationary pressures and rising household costs compelled the central bank to raise interest rates further this month. Australian shares fell sharply as major industrial sectors struggled, despite a significant rally for local energy producers…
Market Key Points Global equities were mixed in February, with emerging markets outperforming and a rotation toward cyclicals amid a solid earnings season. Bond yields fell, and commodities rallied, as investors reassessed the pace of global rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks. Australian equities outperformed during a volatile earnings season, with Financials and Materials leading the ASX…
Market Key Points The domestic equity market took the lead from European and US markets, finishing higher in January, while REITs moved lower. US equity markets rose in January in the face of rising geopolitical tension and the start of another US earnings season. Fixed interest performance was generally mixed over the first month of the year, with Japan normalising its monetary policy and…
Market Key Points Global markets closed the year on a mixed but generally steady footing, with every major asset class delivering positive returns over the year for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. US equity markets were broadly flat, whilst international share markets were broadly positive in December. Fixed interest performance was generally negative into year end, largely driven by…
Market Key Points Global markets continue to deal with the uncertainty caused by the lack of data coming out of the US and the future path of interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Equity markets took a breather in November after a strong calendar year of returns, as growth stocks took a back seat to value. Global Real Estate and Infrastructure outperformed the higher risk asset classes…
Market Key Points Major equity markets around the world continued the positive momentum in October. Early-month geopolitical tensions in the US faded as positive trade negotiations with China and solid corporate earnings pushed US equities back to near record highs. Emerging markets continue to outperform versus developed markets, whilst global small caps underperformed large. Australian equities…
Market Key Points The September quarter delivered positive returns across most major asset classes as trade tensions eased. Global technology stocks, linked to AI, dominated investment headlines in September. Emerging markets continue to outperform versus developed markets. Australian equities The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index fell 0.8% in September, reversing August’s gains, with nine of 1…
Market Key Points The Trump Administration has made progress in trade agreements with major economies including the EU, UK, Japan, South Korea, and a preliminary deal with China to pause the most extreme tariffs. With tariffs now likely to stabilize around current levels we expect softer, but still manageable macroeconomic conditions. The August reporting season points to a more optimistic growth…
Market Key Points The US made progress on trade agreements with major economies, including a pause on extreme tariffs targeting China. Emerging markets continue to rally, while growth stocks performed strongly across developed markets. Hard macroeconomic signals remained broadly resilient in July, with investors continuing to look to how US policy changes will interact. Australian equities The S…
Market Key Points Ongoing tariff policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have had minimal negative effects on risk assets. US equity markets outperformed again in June, supported by the growing chances of interest rate cuts and the avoidance of a recession. Hard macroeconomic signals remained resilient in June, with investors watching closely how US policy changes will…
Market Key Points Global markets extended their recovery in May. Trade war de-escalation reduced global recession fears and led to a broad-based rally back into risk assets. US markets outperformed in May, rebounding from the underperformance in April. Australian equities The S&P ASX 200 Accumulation Index continued to rally in May, up 4.2% on the back of the 3.6% increase in April. Markets…
Market Key Points Global markets experienced further volatility in April. Local markets were one of the brighter spots, finishing the month 3.6% higher driven in part by Trump’s 90-day pause on tariffs. US markets finished the month slightly lower. Australian equities The ASX 200 Accumulation Index gained 3.6% in April, paring back some of the losses from February and March. The market experienced…
Market Key Points It was a challenging month with domestic and international markets experiencing a sell-off. Local markets finished the month 3.4% lower, while the S&P 500 Index was off by 5.6%. Fixed income markets adjusted to news about tariffs and their implications for inflation and growth. Australian equities The ASX 200 Accumulation Index fell a further 3.4% in March, marking the second…
Market Key Points The Australian equity market had a challenging month returning -3.8% dragged down by growth and cyclical sectors while defensives did well. The S&P 500 Index (USD) also finished the month lower returning -1.3%. The Japanese market (Nikkei 225 Index (JPY)) was one of the weakest markets globally with a return of -6.1%. Chinese markets were a bright spot, as was some of the…
Market Key Points The Australian equity market was stronger over the month returning 4.6% and following a positive lead from most developed markets. The S&P 500 Index (USD) finished the month higher by 2.8%. Asian markets by contrast, in particular the Nikkei 225 Index (JPY) and CSI 300 Index (CNY), finished the month weaker Australian equities The ASX 200 Accumulation Index gained 4.6% in…
Market Key Points The Australian equity market finished the month lower, aligning with other Developed Markets. In both Australia and the US, the perception of prolonged high interest rates impacted sectors sensitive to interest rate changes. Asian and Emerging Markets performed strongly, with Japanese equities experiencing another robust month, diverging from the trend in Developed Markets…
Market Key Points The Australian equity market rebounded in November returning 3.8% over the month. Global developed markets had a strong month, US equity markets buoyed by the presidential election results. Asian markets suffered most visibly by comparison as the threat of tariffs potentially imposed by a Trump presidency were assessed. Australian equities After losing ground in October, the…
Market Key Points The Australian equity market finished the month lower with uncertainty from overseas and local economic data playing a role as the month progressed. International markets were similarly impacted, with the exception of Japan which finished the month stronger. Consumer Staples were the notable weak spots. Australian equities The ASX 200 Accumulation Index fell 1.3% in October…
Market Key Points The Australian equity market had a strong month rising 3.0%, supported by a rally in the Materials sector. More defensive sectors, for example Health Care and Consumer Staples were the notable weak spots. Of note globally was the rally in Chinese equities with the CSI 300 Index (CNY) jumping 21.1%. Australian equities The ASX 200 closed September at a new record high, reaching…
Market Key Points The Australian equity market rose 0.5% over the month. It was another strong month for the Information Technology sector, with other sectors mixed. Energy was the notable weak spot. Globally, most developed markets rose over the month with Asian markets mixed. Australian equities Reporting season was a mixed month for the ASX 200, which finished August up 0.5%. The market…
Market Key Points The Australian equity market had an exceptionally strong month rising 4.2%. All sectors with the exception of Utilities, Energy and Materials finished the month higher. Australian equity performance outshone global counterparts. The S&P 500 Index (USD) rose 1.2%, the FTSE Eurotop 100 Index (EUR) rose 0.5% and the CSI 300 Index (CNY) rose 0.6%. The Japanese and Hong Kong markets…
Market Key Points The Australian market continued to make gains, rising 1.0% during June with mixed returns across underlying sectors. The U.S. and Japanese markets were the strongest overseas markets, finishing the month up 3.1% and 2.0%, respectively (S&P 500 Index (USD) and Nikkei 225 Index (JPY)). Australian equities June saw the ASX 200 Accumulation Index rise by 1.0%. Following May's mixed…
Market Key Points The Australian market gained 0.9% during May, led by Information Technology. Most overseas markets finished the month higher. U.S. markets rallied strongly, with the S&P 500 gaining 5.0%. European markets, represented by the FTSE Eurotop 100 Index, were also up 2.9%. Australian equities The ASX 200 Index recorded a modest 0.9% gain in May. There was a broad dispersion of returns…
Market Key Points The Australian market was weaker in April, finishing the month 2.9% lower. Leading the market lower were Property, Consumer Discretionary and Communications sectors. The only sectors finishing the month in the black were Utilities and Materials. Most developed markets, including the U.S. and Europe, fell during the month, though U.K. and Asian markets finished the month higher…
Market Key Points The Australian market had a strong month in March, finishing 3.3% higher. Property, energy, and utilities led the market higher. The only sector finishing the month lower was Communications. Overseas markets also finished the month materially higher, with strong gains in the US, Europe, and the UK. Australian equities The ASX 200 rose 3.3% in March, with the strong month…
Market Returns Australian Equities: The S&P/ASX 200 and Small Ordinaries indexes rose by 0.79% and 1.72% respectively, reflecting a continued upward trend in the domestic market. Global Equities: Internationally, the MSCI World NR Index surged by 5.82%, while emerging markets showed impressive growth, with the MSCI Emerging Markets NR Index up by 6.35%. Property: The real estate sector saw mixed…
Market Returns Australian Equities: The S&P/ASX 200 and Small Ordinaries indexes climbed by 1.19% and 0.90% respectively, showcasing robust growth in the domestic market. Global Equities: The MSCI World NR Index witnessed a 4.46% upswing, with notable variance across regions, particularly in Asian markets where China and Hong Kong experienced downturns. Property: Australian A-REITs showed positive…
Market Returns Australian Equities: Witnessed a significant upturn with the S&P/ASX 200 TR Index rising by 7.26%, showcasing a robust performance across sectors. Global Equities: The MSCI World NR Index reported a growth of 1.94%, highlighting positive momentum in developed markets despite challenges in emerging markets. Property: Australian A-REITs surged by 11.40%, indicating strong investor…
Market Returns Australian Equities: The S&P/ASX 200 TR Index climbed by 5.03%, with the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries TR Index also up by 7.04%. Global Equities: Showed a positive trend with the MSCI World NR Index (AUD) up by 4.44% and the S&P 500 PR Index (USD) increasing by 8.92%. Property: The S&P/ASX 300 A-REIT TR Index reported a significant gain of 10.93%. Fixed Interest: The Bloomberg Ausbond…
Market summary The Australian market continued its decline in October finishing the month lower by 3.8% with heavy falls in Information Technology, Health Care and Industrials, Utilities the only sector in the black. Overseas markets also declined, with falls across both developed and emerging markets. Australian equities October saw the ASX 200 finish down 3.8%, marking the third consecutive…
Market Key Points During September, the Australian equity market declined by 2.8%. Most sectors finished the month lower, with the exception of Energy (+1.6%). Property (-8.6%), Information Technology (-7.9%) and Health Care (-6.2%) had the largest declines. Overseas markets declined, except for the FTSE 100 Index (GBP), which finished 2.4% higher. While acknowledging recent volatility, most…
Market Key Points During August, the Australian equity market declined by 0.7%. Most sectors finished the month lower, except for Consumer Discretionary (+5.7%), Property (+2.3%) and Energy (0.5%). Overseas markets also declined, Asian markets in particular finishing the month substantially softer. The Hang Seng Index (HKD) and the CSI 300 Index (CNY) declined by 8.2% and 6.0%, respectively…
Key Points The Australian equity market finished July up 2.9%. Most sectors delivered strong returns led by energy (+8.8%), Financials ex-Property (4.9%) and Information Technology (4.5%), while Health Care (-1.5%) and Consumer Staples (-1.0%) were the only laggards. With the exception of Japan, most global markets finished July stronger. The S&P 500 (USD) returned 3.2%, while the Nikkei 225 Index…
Investment scams are becoming more pervasive and prevalent and though many of us are aware of their existence, scammers are finding smarter ways to access your money. The good news is, you can protect yourself with simple and common-sense measures. Every scam is different, but there are some tell-tale signs to watch out for, including: Promise of low risk, but high returns. You’re asked to…
We frequently meet with clients who have put off dealing with their estate planning because they don’t know who to appoint as executors. When this is the case there are a range of benefits in considering appointing an independent professional executor to handle your estate. The role of an executor In basic terms, the role of an Executor is to step into the shoes of the Willmaker, deal with the…
George Smith, Portfolio Strategist LPL Financial So far, 2022 has not been kind to investors with most major stock markets, including the S&P 500, incurring heavy losses and entering bear markets. It has felt like an incredibly volatile environment so today we take a closer look at exactly how it compares to historic data. “The stock markets this year have felt like a rollercoaster so it’s no…
A controversial title, but the premise is sound and we think it's very relevant when it comes to financial news and thinking about investment. The text below is from the Farnham Street Blog (fs.blog) We spend hours consuming news because we want to be informed. The problem is news doesn’t make us informed, just the opposite. The more news we consume the more misinformed we become. And our…
Here’s an easy tip for anyone negotiating to buy a car, a house, or even a company. When you make an initial offer, don’t bid with a round number like $10,000 or $1 million or $15 per share. Rather, bid with a more precise number, like $9,800 or $1.03 million or $14.80 per share. According to a recent study of mergers and acquisitions, investors who offer “precise” bids for company shares yield…
Our clients may be tired of us talking about how hard it is to get the inflation "genie" back into the bottle, but this article from The Hustle provides a great explanation of inflationary psychology and inflation expectations. As consumers and businesses become more aware of inflation, higher inflation expectations are set and they act / price accordingly, making it more difficult to bring…
Clive Thompson Wealthsimple Magazine COBOL is a coding language older than Weird Al Yankovic. The people who know how to use it are often just as old. It underpins the entire financial system. And it can’t be removed. A fizzy new TikTok-style app can launch and enjoy massive popularity even with a lot of bugs. If the “like” count on your latest post is slightly wrong, eh, no big deal. In contrast…
Global interest rates have soared since we published our November 2021 post, Should you fix your mortgage interest rate? | Walbrook Wealth Management. Fixed mortgage rates, influenced more by the expectations of market participants for growth and inflation than the policy targets of central banks, were first to move as pent-up demand and supply-chain bottlenecks saw the emergence of inflation…
After over a decade of "passive investing" dominance, a shift is underway. Active management rewards investors who can skillfully blend between and shift within different asset classes, a seemingly fruitless exercise until recently. When everything is going up in value, there's little-to-no value in doing so. In recent days, Fed Chairman Jay Powell reiterated in no uncertain terms that he's waging…
The most important price in the world is the price of money: namely, interest rates. And interest rates are suddenly on everyone’s minds, as rates shoot upward for the first time in decades. The effects or this rise will be felt in the markets, the economy at large, in households, and at the election booth. Which is why I went to Jim Grant: the investor, historian, and editor of the Grant’s…
Patrick McKenzie (Stripe) Bits About Money I had hoped to write about wire transfers for a while, since they’re fascinating and poorly understood. The sanctioning of Russia in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine has made some of the mechanics extremely topical. We'll return to the infrastructural bits again, but many people find themselves urgently wanting to understand what SWIFT does and does…
Global Covid-19 cases continue to rise, with numbers surpassing 197 million cases at the end of July, an increase of 14 million in the month. Vaccination remains critical as countries with high vaccination rates show lower hospitalisation and death rates, even with increased infection rates. 3.8 billion doses had been delivered globally as of the end of July. Equities July saw a contrast in…
Key economic indicators continue to improve, with several leading economies beginning to report modest increases in inflation. High-frequency indicators, such as business surveys, are off their peak readings but remain elevated in a historical context. Meanwhile, global equities have rallied for the fifth consecutive quarter, buoyed by vaccine rollouts supporting strong corporate earnings results…
Manufacturing is making a comeback in most industries after languishing during the pandemic and supplies of chips - used to operate most devices in the home, office and car - are in short supply. The shortage is being felt acutely in the automotive industry, and analysts estimate it could last as long as two years. Key economic indicators continue to improve, with several leading economies…
According to credit rating agency Moody's, consumers worldwide have stockpiled an extra USD 5.4 trillion of savings since the coronavirus pandemic began. Households worldwide accumulated the excess — defined as the additional savings compared with the 2019 spending pattern and equating to more than 6 per cent of global gross domestic product — by the end of the first quarter of this year, paving…
As vaccines continue to roll out globally, the rebound has shifted to cyclical sectors that the market expects will perform strongly as the world returns to normal. In the US, the style rotation has been apparent in the performance disparity between the ‘old economy’ Dow Jones Industrial Index, which rose 8.3% in the March quarter, and the 1.8% rise in the ‘new economy’ NASDAQ Composite Index 1.…
The vaccine narrative is propelling the economic recovery forward, even as some regions face logistical headwinds. Fiscal and monetary policy remain extraordinarily accommodative and are helping households and businesses through what we hope are the final stages. Australia The AstraZeneca vaccine rollout has begun, though Australia will keep its international borders shut for at least another…
The pandemic still looms large across the global economic landscape, with over 100 million confirmed Covid-19 cases worldwide at the start of February. The gradual rollout of vaccines offers hope that the world can achieve a new normal, despite early logistical roadblocks and shortages in some regions. The Covid-19 situation in the US is improving while Europe is bringing recent outbreaks under…
By some estimates, 2020 has seen the sharpest decline in global output in around 100 years. The IMF expects global real GDP growth to have finished 2020 down about 4.7%. For 2021, growth is forecast to rebound by 4.8%. The depth and speed of recovery in growth from the COVID recession stand in stark contrast with previous global recessions, such as in 2008. Covid-19 cases are still rising in the…
The global recovery is underway and is looking sufficiently V-shaped, but recent economic news has been mixed. Infection rates have risen in the US and Europe, causing a loss of momentum, but news of successful vaccine trials from multiple companies has boosted confidence. Central bank policy remains remarkably accommodative, and fiscal spending is supporting jobs and income. Globally there were…
After a tense presidential election race, Senator Biden is the president-elect of the United States. Markets rallied as it became clear that a Biden presidency with a Republican-controlled Senate was likely, which was swiftly followed by the announcement of positive results from Pfizer on their COVID-19 vaccine. The vaccine announcement came as COVID-19 cases in the US and Europe continued to…
With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting the cash rate to 0.10% on Melbourne Cup Day, you may be asking yourself ‘Is now the right time to fix my mortgage interest rate?’ The answer depends on personal circumstances, such as your cash flow, family situation and employment status, and your current mortgage arrangements. If you already have a fixed-rate mortgage, then your mortgage payments…
Data from the World Health Organisation confirmed that COVID-19 cases worldwide were above 33 million and rising at the end of September. The global recovery is taking hold as economies gradually emerge from lockdown; however, significant uncertainty remains about the possible path the pandemic could take and the timeline for vaccines to be made available to the public. The presidential race is…
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread, with data from the World Health Organisation showing confirmed cases were above 27 million at the end of August and rising. Globally, the economic recovery continues following severe contractions in the first half of 2020. Shipping volumes are already back at levels that took more than a year to reach following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Still…
This report was produced on 24 August 2020 with ICAEW's partner Oxford Economics, one of the world’s foremost advisory firms. Their analytical tools provide an unparalleled ability to forecast economic trends. The global economy is experiencing a once-in-a-generation shock. The recovery from the low point earlier this year has been strong so far, with China leading the way; although the rest of…
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global economy has been profound, especially in emerging, low-income economies with limited health care capacity. Hopes of a V-shaped recovery faded in July as Covid19 cases worldwide ticked over 15 million. However, policy settings remain incredibly favourable as central banks and governments support economies via monetary easing and fiscal measures…
The rise in the number of COVID-19 cases globally continues to create uncertainty about the shape of economic recovery. Some countries which were initially successful in suppressing the virus are experiencing a second wave, while others are reopening amidst a resurgent first wave. While some financial markets are back at record highs, increased pessimism around unemployment and overall activity…
Major economies avoided a resurgence in COVID-19 cases in May, though it continues to spread rapidly in some regions and health authorities warn of a possible second wave. While tentative steps are being taken to re-open non-essential services, overall activity remains far below pre-pandemic levels. Apple’s mobility trends data suggests that public transport use in Melbourne is still 60% down on…
Uncertainty about the economic and social damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic persisted in April. To limit damage, governments began planning to ease restrictions under the shadow of growing social unease and the threat of a second wave of infections. Global markets staged a strong comeback, with some equity markets technically moving back into bull market territory, however there remains a…
The coronavirus situation moved quickly in the past six weeks from something many people felt was an exaggerated response to a nasty version of the flu to a global pandemic that has killed tens of thousands and shut down large swathes of the world economy. Governments around the world have implemented extreme measures, including social distancing, partial shutdowns, and full lockdowns to reduce…
The focus over the past month has been almost entirely on the coronavirus outbreak, the measures taken to contain it, and the potential economic fallout. At this stage it is difficult to gauge the impact on Chinese and global growth, but so far the disruption caused to supply chains and the effect on confidence has been dramatic. In response to the coronavirus outbreak and anticipated economic…
News that a form of coronavirus - known as COVID-19 - has spread to over 60 countries led to sharp falls in global markets last week, with many down over 10% for the week and 5% year to date. The rapid nature of the correction in global equities caught investors off guard, though bond investors had been more prescient. Reviewing the previous 10% drops in the S&P 500 index, this correction is the…
Substantial and sustained flows into Responsible Investment (RI) strategies in recent years are commanding the attention of company boards and their key stakeholders. But what does RI mean in terms of investment process? And how do you ensure that your savings are invested in line with your values? Understandably, investors might see Ethical, Responsible or ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance…
Just as some of the risks that had fuelled uncertainty in 2019 faded – notably trade tensions and Brexit uncertainties – new risks emerged across the globe. Trade tensions broadly eased as President Donald Trump signed both the Phase 1 agreement with China and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (also known as USMCA or NAFTA 2.0). The risk of further escalation in the trade war has been…
When did you last review your SMSF’s investment strategy? You may be aware that the Australian Tax Office (ATO) has issued letters to nearly 18,000 SMSF trustees as part of a campaign to ensure trustees are aware of their investment obligations. Of key concern is ensuring that trustees have considered diversification and liquidity of their assets when formulating and executing their fund’s…
Your superannuation trust deed along with the superannuation laws form the governing rules that self managed super funds (SMSFs) needs to operate by. The introduction of the $1.6 million transfer balance cap (TBC) and new transition to retirement income stream (TRIS) rules are a ‘game changer’ for SMSFs when discussing benefit payments and estate planning. With the new super rules in effect as of…